Luke Runyon is the water reporter at KUNC in Greeley, Colorado. The test_cookie is set by doubleclick.net and is used to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. By the end of the summer, its projected to be even lower, at 29% of its capacity, which is a record low. But the warming temperatures that were seeing make it considerably worse than it would have been. Dry soils soak up snow when it melts, keeping it from rivers and reservoirs. Glen Canyon Dam in Lake Powell near Page, Arizona on July 4, 2010. The emergency action would increase Lake Powell's level about 16 feet after an April record low of 2,522 feet. Lakes in the Colorado River Basin are drying up and losing water, with severe water cuts now expected across four states - the start of a water crisis in the West. So Im guessing over the next several years, as policies are negotiated, youre going to hear a lot more about how tribes are being involved in that process. This cookie is set by the provider Akamai Bot Manager. What are the effects of climate change? The story has been updated to reflect this information. Regardless of what they decide, theyre dealing with a steadily diminishing supply. For the authoritative record of Science Fridays programming, please visit the original aired/published recording. As the drought continues and global warming evaporates water supplying the reservoirs, each reservoir isn't far from dead pool, which is when the water level is too low to flow downstream or power the turbines that provide hydroelectric power. And this is just the beginning of what could happen if the lake keeps drying up. The study is aimed, in part, at trying to help guide efforts at devising a contingency plan, to keep things from getting out of hand, Kuhn said. If levels dropped below 3,490 feet, there wouldnt be enough water flowing through Glen Canyon Dams turbines to generate power. Phoenix has underground wells and plusa it gets water from the CAP canal directly from the Colorado river, then there are several near full dams nearby. The Santa Cruz River is now a giant bed of dust and sand. Stretching for 186 miles along the border of Utah and Arizona, Lake Powell serves as one of two major reservoirs that anchor the Colorado River. The pattern element in the name contains the unique identity number of the account or website it relates to. That deficit is about the same amount of precipitation that falls across Utah in an entire year. In the year 2000, the two reservoirs were 95% full. University of California professor Jay Lund previously told Newsweek that the cuts already implemented aren't enough, and in order to give the reservoirs ample time to recover through rain and snowpack melt, people will need to reduce their consumption even more. "I've been here since 2007 and obviously this is way lower than I've ever seen it.". Nearly all of Utah, New Mexico, . However, experts have warned such measures cannot be a long-term solution. Because the deficit is so substantial, Meyer said its very likely the watershed will see drought conditions persist in 2021. VigLink sets this cookie to track the user behaviour and also limit the ads displayed, in order to ensure relevant advertising. This drought will only be exacerbated by climate change, as the increased global temperatures are expected to increase the severity of drought weather and frequencies of wildfires, as well as influencing a vast range of other extreme weather events. Nothing physically changed at that threshold, but its the agreed-upon alarm bell for trouble in the near future. Even though conditions may be evolving and getting even worse, we dont really have a way to depict that, because D4, thats that ceiling, she said. Lake Oroville (of the enormous spillway failure fame) and Lake Shasta, two of California's largest reservoirs, are at critical levels. At the time of publication, Lake Powell was sitting at only 3,529 feet only four feet above this important threshold. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. The latest data shows the reservoir at 3,523 feet above sea level. And thats because some of these past agreements have put that state in the most vulnerable position for cutbacks. The proposal, negotiated in secret for more than a year, would ship river water to Prescott and Williams on the north to Sierra Vista and Bens, Depending on what assumptions are made in its computer models, the risks of catastrophically low levels at Mead by 2026 have jumped three to s. YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages. Lake Mead's level is 1,047 feet above sea level. This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. Lakes Mead and Powell. Im John Dankosky, and now its time to check in on the state of science. This Statista chart shows the share of the continental United States' area under different levels of drought between 2018 and 2022. LinkedIn sets this cookie to remember a user's language setting. Because of that, the spring and early summer will bring a temporary boost to water levels while snow runs into rivers and eventually flows into Lake Powell. During the 2000-2005 drought, Lake Powell lost 13 million acre-feet of water and dropped almost 100 feet. Subscribe to stay connected to Tucson. Joining me to shed a little bit more light on this is Luke Runyon. This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website. I said at the top that we dont have an official water shortage. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years . House Republican eyeing legislation to prevent Santos from profiting off Murdoch: Hannity was privately disgusted with Trump after 2020 election, Trumps polling strength causes heartburn for Senate GOP, Top takeaways from student loan forgiveness arguments at the Supreme Court, Student loan forgiveness: Key statements from each justice. Frankel criticizes water managers for their inaction in the face of those trends. Hes a reporter at KUNC, based in Fort Collins, Colorado. The regions been looking warily at the reservoirs along this long river that winds its way from Colorados Rocky Mountains all the way to Mexico, just shy of the Gulf of California. Is this as bad as climate change is going to get in shrinking the snowpacks in the headwaters? The cookie is used to store and identify a users' unique session ID for the purpose of managing user session on the website. Twitter sets this cookie to integrate and share features for social media and also store information about how the user uses the website, for tracking and targeting. At this stage a significant amount of Glen Canyon . If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. At its height, the lake surface sits over 1,200 feet (365 meters) above sea level. At 3,522 feet, Lake Powell's water surface elevation is at its lowest point since it was first filled in the 1960s, per a statement. The Lower Basin fares worse, with 93% of the land area in those categories. "You might not see the lush lawns of today and endless fields of alfalfa, but you will see thriving communities and agricultural regions. People should definitely not feel like the agencies managing the Colorado River have it under control, he said. Udall questioned the validity of using the years before 2000 because the years 1990 to 1999 were very wet and not representative of the weather we see now. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. If its dry there, that means many more problems as the water flows downstream. Theyre already low, because the entire watershed has been experiencing above-average temperatures and below-average river flows since the year 2000. This cookie is native to PHP applications. Give us an idea, if you would, just how low the supply is in the basins reservoirs right now. The JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application. There is also 29 federally-recognized tribes in the basin, of which 10 of those tribes hold a significant amount of water rights from the river. It wascreated by blocking the Colorado River atGlen Canyon in southern Utah and northernArizona. These reservoirs are as empty now as when they started filling Glen Canyon Dam in the 1960s, said John Fleck, director of the University of New Mexicos water resources program. The first warning sign would come if a drought pushed the lake below 3,525 feet, almost 85 feet below where it is now. That includes releases of water upstream of Lake Powell, and voluntary cuts in Powells downstream neighbor, Lake Mead. Broadly speaking, dropping levels have created a lot of unanswered questions about the future. A variation of the _gat cookie set by Google Analytics and Google Tag Manager to allow website owners to track visitor behaviour and measure site performance. I mean, what sort of disputes are coming to the forefront because of this? The four Upper Basin states Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are devising a three-legged stool plan to protect Lake Powell. Lake Powell is in crisis. Those are Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Utah. If the outlet tubes cant meet the reservoirs needs, she said, the flow of water in the Grand Canyon itself could be reduced to a trickle. At its highest, in 1983, the lake was 3,708 feet above sea level. One acre-foot generally provides enough water for one to two households for a year. And thats Lake Powell in southern Utah and Lake Mead, which is on the Nevada-Arizona border near Las Vegas. And it takes several years of good weather in order to bring the system out of drought. works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. Get up-to-the-minute news sent straight to your device. LinkedIn sets this cookie to store performed actions on the website. ", States that use Colorado River Basin water mandated to cut use. Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. The low levels arent just causing hand-wringing among the Wests water officials. Newsweek previously. Climate scientists call it D4. When its needed its released to Lake Mead and the three Lower Basin states. Explain that a little bit for us, Luke, and just how dire the situation is for the groundwater in the region. And Lake Mead is currently at 37% capacity. In an average year, Lake Powell gets enough water that it can release a bit more 8.23 million acre-feet a year. The U.S. Department of the Interior is considering a plan to keep extra water in Lake Powell. It will be painful but it doesn't mean the area can't thrive. "Its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River is to the entire American southwest.. Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, Latest climate change news from USA TODAY, Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. A subscription helps you access more of the local stories that keep you connected to the community. The water level decline . Experts say that the reservoir may dry up completely in a few decades. Some of Americas largest cities depend on the water from Lake Mead. According to the National Park Service, contaminants from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated. This website uses cookies to improve your experience. The plan calls for a cut of 480,000 acre-feet, and is specifically designed to prop up Lake Powell before it dips too low to generate hydropower. Skip Navigation. Water managers in the four Upper Basin states and the federal government are expected to start monthly planning calls this year to consider options for propping up the reservoir if needed. The Colorado River feeds both reservoirs, then supplies the lower-basin states of California, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico with water. The dropping water levels are indicated by white marks on the canyon wall, often likened to a bathtub ring. Newsweek reached out to the Central Arizona Project for comment. Complicating matters are the ongoing talks on allocation between the seven states on the Colorado River, the source of the lakes waters. More than four scientific studieshave pinned a large part of the decline on human climate change. Lake Mead the largest reservoir in the Colorado River Basin is losing water at record speeds, dropping . If the water levels drop to levels below the intake pipes, the water flow will cease to turn the hydroelectric turbines, and the dam won't generate any power. A water level of 3,490 feet is known as "minimum power pool." I'm not sure a lot of Las Vega. Meanwhile, climate change is adding pressure to the entire river system, exacerbating existing supply and demand imbalances. 2020. With the reservoirs approaching their lowest levels in modern history, that brings us to our final number: 2026. The river is a lifeline, providing water to more than . This cookie is used to detect and defend when a client attempt to replay a cookie.This cookie manages the interaction with online bots and takes the appropriate actions. JOHN DANKOSKY: When you use the term megadrought, that sounds like a newer term. This is the highest percentage of land in the rivers Upper Basin since 2002, which stands as the regions driest year on record. Such is the nature of the climate change beast that we have unleashed.. If the water level continues falling on its own, below minimum power pool, the dam is physically incapable of releasing a lot of water. Balken surmises the jugs were tied to the trees back when Lake Powell just covered their upper branches to warn boaters of the hazard beneath the surface. What is the current status of Lake Powell? 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